sidelined – Radio Free https://www.radiofree.org Independent Media for People, Not Profits. Thu, 31 Jul 2025 19:56:23 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://www.radiofree.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/cropped-Radio-Free-Social-Icon-2-32x32.png sidelined – Radio Free https://www.radiofree.org 32 32 141331581 Media Sidelined Deadly Consequences of Trump’s Reconciliation Bill https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/31/media-sidelined-deadly-consequences-of-trumps-reconciliation-bill/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/07/31/media-sidelined-deadly-consequences-of-trumps-reconciliation-bill/#respond Thu, 31 Jul 2025 19:56:23 +0000 https://fair.org/?p=9046763  

President Donald Trump on July 4 signed into law an omnibus reconciliation bill, branded in MAGA propaganda (and much of corporate media) as the “Big Beautiful Bill.” The legislation scraped up just enough votes to narrowly pass in both chambers of the Republican-controlled Congress, with 51 to 50 votes in the Senate and 218 to 214 in the House.

The focal point of the bill is a $4.5 trillion tax cut, partly paid for by unprecedented slashes in funding for healthcare and food assistance. The wealthiest 10% will gain $12,000 a year from the legislation, while it will cost the lowest-earning 10% of families $1,600 annually. Media addressed the fiscal aspects of the bill, though more often through a fixation on the federal debt rather than looking at the effect of the budget on inequality (FAIR.org, 7/17/25).

But it’s not just a question of money. Many of the bill’s key provisions—including Medicaid, SNAP and clean energy cuts, as well as handouts to the fossil fuel, military and detention industries—will be literally deadly for people in the US and abroad, in both the near and long term.

FAIR’s Belén Fernandez (7/9/25) closely examined the dramatic lack of coverage of the vast expansion of the government’s anti-immigrant capacities. But the deadly consequences of the other aspects of the bill were also remarkably underexplained to the public.

To see how major media explained the contents and consequences of the reconciliation bill to the public before its enactment, FAIR surveyed New York Times, Washington Post, CNN and NPR news coverage from the Senate’s passage of the final version of the bill on July 1 through July 4, the day Trump signed the bill into law. This time frame, when the actual contents of the bill were known and the House was deliberating on giving it an up or down vote, was arguably the moment when media attention was most critical to the democratic process.

‘We all are going to die’

USA Today: How Trump's tax bill could cut Medicaid for millions of Americans

This USA Today article (7/1/25) was one of the more informative in detailing the impact of the bill, but it still fell short of detailing the projected cost in human lives.

While corporate media reported that the finalized bill with the Senate’s revisions would significantly cut healthcare funding to subsidize the tax breaks, they rarely explained the social consequences of such cuts. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that the bill will reduce $1.04 trillion in funding for Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act and the Children’s Health Insurance Program over the next decade. This will strip health insurance from 11.8 million people.

The New York Times (7/1/25), acknowledging these statistics, quoted Democrats who opposed the bill due to “the harmful impact it will have on Medicaid,” and who noted that people will soon “see the damage that is done as hospitals close, as people are laid off, as costs go up, as the debt increases.”

But the outlets in our sample, at this crucial time of heightened attention, failed to mention the most significant consequence of cutting Medicaid: death.

These outlets (New York Times, 5/30/25; NPR, 5/31/25; CNN, 5/31/25;  Washington Post, 6/1/25) had all earlier acknowledged what the Times called Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R-IA) “morbid” response to her constituents’ concerns about deaths from Medicaid cuts: “Well, we all are going to die.”

But as the House deliberated on whether these cuts would become law, these outlets failed to reference credible research that projected that the large-scale loss of health insurance envisioned by the bill would have an annual death toll in the tens of thousands. One USA Today piece (7/1/25) did headline that “Trump’s Tax Bill Could Cut Medicaid for Millions of Americans,” but didn’t spell out the potential cost in human lives.

Before the Senate’s revisions, researchers from Yale’s School of Public Health and UPenn’s Leonard Davis Institute of Health Economics (Penn LDI, 6/3/25) projected that such massive cuts to healthcare would result in 51,000 deaths annually. That number is expected to be even higher now, as the calculation was based on an earlier CBO estimate of 7.7 million people losing coverage over the next decade (CBO, 5/11/25).

‘Harms to healthcare’—not to people

CNN: Here’s who stands to gain from the ‘big, beautiful bill.’ And who may struggle

CNN (7/4/25) euphemized life-threatening withdrawal of care as “harm to the healthcare system.”

CNN (7/4/25), in a piece on “Who Stands to Gain From the ‘Big, Beautiful Bill.’ And Who May Struggle,” similarly failed to spell out the dire consequences of the Medicaid cuts. It wrote that low-income Americans would be “worse off” thanks to those cuts, yet it extensively described only the fiscal impacts, as opposed to the costs in life and health, on lower- and middle-class families.

Hospitals would also be “worse off” due to the bill, as it would “leave them with more uncompensated care costs for treating uninsured patients.” This rhetorically rendered the patient, made uninsured by legislation, a burden.

The article quoted American Hospital Association CEO Rick Pollack, who said that

the real-life consequences…will result in irreparable harm to our healthcare system, reducing access to care for all Americans and severely undermining the ability of hospitals and health systems to care for our most vulnerable patients.

But CNN refused to spell out to readers what that “harm to the healthcare system” would mean: beyond “reducing access,” it would cause people to die preventable deaths.

Outlets often seemed more concerned with the impact of the bill on lawmakers’ political survival than its impact on their low-income constituents’ actual survival. The Washington Post (7/4/25), though acknowledging that their poll revealed that “two-thirds [of Americans] said they had heard either little or nothing about [the bill],” made little or no effort to contribute to an informed public. Instead, it focused on analyzing the “Six Ways Trump’s Tax Bill Could Shape the Battle for Control of Congress.”

The New York Times (7/1/25) similarly observed that the Senate Republicans’ “hard-fought legislative win came at considerable risk to their party’s political futures and fiscal legacy.” In another article (7/1/25), they noticed that it was the “more moderate and politically vulnerable Republicans” who “repeated their opposition to [the bill’s] cuts to Medicaid.”

‘Winners and losers’

NYT: What Are SNAP Benefits, and How Will They Change?

“Opponents of the bill say the proposed cuts will leave millions of adults and children hungry”; the New York Times (7/1/25) apparently doesn’t know whether that’s true or not.

The Medicaid cuts aren’t the only part of the bill that will result in unnecessary deaths. The bill will cut $186 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), a program that helps low-income individuals and families buy food. CBO (5/22/25) estimated that 3.2 million people under the age of 65 will lose food assistance. This contraction is expected to be even more deadly than the healthcare cutbacks: The same researchers from UPenn (7/2/25), along with NYU Langone Health, projected that losing SNAP benefits will result in 93,000 premature deaths between now and 2039.

SNAP cuts were mostly only mentioned alongside Medicaid, if at all (Washington Post, 7/3/25; New York Times, 7/3/25; CNN, 7/4/25). And when they did decide to dedicate a whole article to the singular provision, they rarely ventured beyond the fiscal impacts of such cuts into real, tangible consequences, such as food insecurity, hunger and death. The New York Times (7/1/25) asked “how many people will be affected,” but didn’t bother to ask “how will people be affected?”

What’s more, according to the Center for American Progress (7/7/25), the bill’s repeal of incentives for energy efficiency and improved air quality “will likely lead to 430 avoidable deaths every year by 2030 and 930 by 2035.”

The New York Times (7/3/25), however, analyzed this outcome as a changing landscape with “energy winners and losers.” It described how the bill will eliminate tax credits that have encouraged the electrification of homes and alleviated energy costs for millions of families. Somehow, the “loser” here (and all throughout the article) is the abstract concept of “energy efficiency” and private companies, not actual US families.

Another little-discussed provision in the bill is the funding for the Golden Dome, an anti-missile system named for and modeled on Israel’s Iron Dome. The bill set aside $25 billion for its development, along with another $128 billion for military initiatives like expanding the naval fleet and nuclear arsenal.

Media, though, did little more than report these numbers, when they weren’t ignored entirely (CBS, 7/4/25; CNN, 7/4/25). The New York Times (7/1/25) characterized these measures to strengthen the military/industrial complex as “the least controversial in the legislative package”; they were “meant to entice Republicans to vote for it.” In utterly failing to challenge $153 billion in spending on a military that is currently being deployed to bomb other countries in wars of aggression and to suppress protests against authoritarianism at home, the media manufacture consent for militarism as a necessity and an inevitability.

Ignorance a journalistic fail

The Washington Post’s headline and article (7/3/25) perfectly exemplified the paradox with today’s media—calling out how “The Big Problem With Trump’s Bill [Is That] Many Voters Don’t Know What’s in It.” Yet it tosses in an unsubstantial explanation about how “it deals with tax policy, border security, restocking the military/industrial complex, slashing spending on health and food programs for the poor—as well as many, many other programs.”

By reducing sweeping legislative consequences to vague generalities and by positioning ignorance as a voter issue rather than journalistic failure, media outlets maintain a veneer of critique while sidestepping accountability.


Featured image: PBS  depiction (7/30/25) of President Donald Trump signing the reconciliation bill. (photo: Alex Brandon/Pool via Reuters.)


This content originally appeared on FAIR and was authored by Shirlynn Chan.

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Trump hostage negotiator sidelined for angering Netanyahu https://www.radiofree.org/2025/03/15/trump-hostage-negotiator-sidelined-for-angering-netanyahu/ https://www.radiofree.org/2025/03/15/trump-hostage-negotiator-sidelined-for-angering-netanyahu/#respond Sat, 15 Mar 2025 22:39:11 +0000 http://www.radiofree.org/?guid=8844375aff19a565030f4fa94ee5b631
This content originally appeared on The Grayzone and was authored by The Grayzone.

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Iranian Labor Council Says State-Worker Wage Discussions Sidelined ‘More Than Ever’ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/25/iranian-labor-council-says-state-worker-wage-discussions-sidelined-more-than-ever/ https://www.radiofree.org/2024/02/25/iranian-labor-council-says-state-worker-wage-discussions-sidelined-more-than-ever/#respond Sun, 25 Feb 2024 13:20:32 +0000 https://www.rferl.org/a/iran-labor-council-wage-talks-sidelined/32834490.html Iran's so-called axis of resistance is a loose network of proxies, Tehran-backed militant groups, and an allied state actor.

The network is a key element of Tehran's strategy of deterrence against perceived threats from the United States, regional rivals, and primarily Israel.

Active in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, the axis gives Iran the ability to hit its enemies outside its own borders while allowing it to maintain a position of plausible deniability, experts say.

Since the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Iran has played a key role in establishing some of the groups in the axis. Other members have been co-opted by Tehran over the years.

Iran has maintained that around dozen separate groups that comprise the axis act independently.

Tehran's level of influence over each member varies. But the goals pursued by each group broadly align with Iran's own strategic aims, which makes direct control unnecessary, according to experts.

Lebanon's Hizballah

Hizballah was established in 1982 in response to Israel's invasion that year of Lebanon, which was embroiled in a devastating civil war.

The Shi'ite political and military organization was created by the Quds Force, the overseas arm of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces.

Danny Citrinowicz, a research fellow at the Iran Program at the Israel-based Institute for National Security Studies, said Tehran's aim was to unite Lebanon's various Shi'ite political organizations and militias under one organization.

Since it was formed, Hizballah has received significant financial and political assistance from Iran, a Shi'a-majority country. That backing has made the group a major political and military force in Lebanon.

A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.
A Hizballah supporter holds up portraits of Hizballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Beirut in 2018.

"Iran sees the organization as the main factor that will deter Israel or the U.S. from going to war against Iran and works tirelessly to build the organization's power," Citrinowicz said.

Hizballah has around 40,000 fighters, according to the office of the U.S. Director of National Intelligence. The State Department said Iran has armed and trained Hizballah fighters and injected hundreds of millions of dollars in the group.

The State Department in 2010 described Hizballah as "the most technically capable terrorist group in the world."

Citrinowicz said Iran may not dictate orders to the organization but Tehran "profoundly influences" its decision-making process.

He described Hizballah, which is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, not as a proxy but "an Iranian partner managing Tehran's Middle East strategy."

Led by Hassan Nasrallah, Hizballah has developed close ties with other Iranian proxies and Tehran-backed militant groups, helping to train and arm their fighters.

Citrinowicz said Tehran "almost depends" on the Lebanese group to oversee its relations with other groups in the axis of resistance.

Hamas

Hamas, designated a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union, has had a complex relationship with Iran.

Founded in 1987 during the first Palestinian Intifada, or uprising, Hamas is an offshoot of the Palestinian arm of the Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist political organization established in Egypt in the 1920s.

Hamas's political chief is Ismail Haniyeh, who lives in Qatar. Its military wing, the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigades, is commanded by Yahya Sinwar, who is believed to be based in the Gaza Strip. Hamas is estimated to have around 20,000 fighters.

For years, Iran provided limited material support to Hamas, a Sunni militant group. Tehran ramped up its financial and military support to the Palestinian group after it gained power in the Gaza Strip in 2007.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi (right) greets the leader of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran on June 20, 2023.

But Tehran reduced its support to Hamas after a major disagreement over the civil war in Syria. When the conflict broke out in 2011, Iran backed the government of President Bashar al-Assad. Hamas, however, supported the rebels seeking to oust Assad.

Nevertheless, experts said the sides overcame their differences because, ultimately, they seek the same goal: Israel's destruction.

"[But] this does not mean that Iran is deeply aware of all the actions of Hamas," Citrinowicz said.

After Hamas militants launched a multipronged attack on Israel in October that killed around 1,200 people, mostly civilians, Iran denied it was involved in planning the assault. U.S. intelligence has indicated that Iranian leaders were surprised by Hamas's attack.

Seyed Ali Alavi, a lecturer in Middle Eastern and Iranian Studies at SOAS University of London, said Iran's support to Hamas is largely "confined to rhetorical and moral support and limited financial aid." He said Qatar and Turkey, Hamas's "organic" allies, have provided significantly more financial help to the Palestinian group.

Palestinian Islamic Jihad

With around 1,000 members, the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) is the smaller of the two main militant groups based in the Gaza Strip and the closest to Iran.

Founded in 1981, the Sunni militant group's creation was inspired by Iran's Islamic Revolution two years earlier. Given Tehran's ambition of establishing a foothold in the Palestinian Occupied Territories, Iran has provided the group with substantial financial backing and arms, experts say.

The PIJ, led by Ziyad al-Nakhalah, is designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the European Union.

"Today, there is no Palestinian terrorist organization that is closer to Iran than this organization," Citrinowicz said. "In fact, it relies mainly on Iran."

Citrinowicz said there is no doubt that Tehran's "ability to influence [the PIJ] is very significant."

Iraqi Shi'ite Militias

Iran supports a host of Shi'ite militias in neighboring Iraq, some of which were founded by the IRGC and "defer to Iranian instructions," said Gregory Brew, a U.S.-based Iran analyst with the Eurasia Group.

But Tehran's influence over the militias has waned since the U.S. assassination in 2020 of Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who was seen as the architect of the axis of resistance and held great influence over its members.

"The dynamic within these militias, particularly regarding their relationship with Iran, underwent a notable shift following the assassination of Qassem Soleimani," said Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

The U.S. drone strike that targeted Soleimani also killed Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), an umbrella organization of mostly Shi'ite Iran-backed armed groups that has been a part of the Iraqi Army since 2016.

Muhandis was also the leader of Kata'ib Hizballah, which was established in 2007 and is one of the most powerful members of the PMF. Other prominent groups in the umbrella include Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq, Harakat al-Nujaba, Kata'ib Seyyed al-Shuhada, and the Badr Organization. Kata'ib Hizballah has been designated as a terrorist entity by the United States.

Following the deaths of Soleimani and al-Muhandis, Kata'ib Hizballah and other militias "began to assert more autonomy, at times acting in ways that could potentially compromise Iran's interests," said Azizi.

Many of the Iran-backed groups that form the PMF are also part of the so-called Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which rose to prominence in November 2023. The group has been responsible for launching scores of attacks on U.S. troops in Iraq and Syria since Israel launched its war against Hamas in Gaza.

"It's important to note that while several militias within the PMF operate as Iran's proxies, this is not a universal trait across the board," Azizi said.

Azizi said the extent of Iran's control over the PMF can fluctuate based on the political conditions in Iraq and the individual dynamics within each militia.

The strength of each group within the PMF varies widely, with some containing as few as 100 members and others, such as Kata'ib Hizballah, boasting around 10,000 fighters.

Syrian State And Pro-Government Militias

Besides Iran, Syria is the only state that is a member of the axis of resistance.

"The relationship between Iran and the Assad regime in Syria is a strategic alliance where Iran's influence is substantial but not absolute, indicating a balance between dependency and partnership," said Azizi.

The decades-long alliance stems from Damascus's support for Tehran during the devastating 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War.

When Assad's rule was challenged during the Syrian civil war, the IRGC entered the fray in 2013 to ensure he held on to power.

Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.
Khamenei greets Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Tehran in 2019.

Hundreds of IRGC commander and officers, who Iran refers to as "military advisers," are believed to be present in Syria. Tehran has also built up a large network of militias, consisting mostly of Afghans and Pakistanis, in Syria.

Azizi said these militias have given Iran "a profound influence on the country's affairs," although not outright control over Syria.

"The Assad regime maintains its strategic independence, making decisions that serve its national interests and those of its allies," he said.

The Fatemiyun Brigade, comprised of Afghan fighters, and the Zainabiyun Brigade, which is made up of Pakistani fighters, make up the bulk of Iran's proxies in Syria.

"They are essentially units in the IRGC, under direct control," said Brew.

The Afghan and Pakistani militias played a key role in fighting rebel groups opposed to Assad during the civil war. There have been reports that Iran has not only granted citizenship to Afghan fighters and their families but also facilitated Syrian citizenship for them.

The Fatemiyun Brigade, the larger of the two, is believed to have several thousand fighters in Syria. The Zainabiyun Brigade is estimated to have less than 1,000 fighters.

Yemen's Huthi Rebels

The Huthis first emerged as a movement in the 1980s in response to the growing religious influence of neighboring Saudi Arabia, a Sunni kingdom.

In 2015, the Shi'ite militia toppled the internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government of Yemen. That triggered a brutal, yearslong Saudi-led war against the rebels.

With an estimated 200,000 fighters, the Huthis control most of the northwest of the country, including the capital, Sanaa, and are in charge of much of the Red Sea coast.

A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.
A Huthi militant stands by a poster of Iraqi militia commander Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis and Iranian military commander Qassem Soleimani during a rally by Huthi supporters to denounce the U.S. killing of both commanders, in Sanaa, Yemen, in 2020.

The Huthis' disdain for Saudi Arabia, Iran's regional foe, and Israel made it a natural ally of Tehran, experts say. But it was only around 2015 that Iran began providing the group with training through the Quds Force and Hizballah. Tehran has also supplied weapons to the group, though shipments are regularly intercepted by the United States.

"The Huthis…appear to have considerable autonomy and Tehran exercises only limited control, though there does appear to be [a] clear alignment of interests," said Brew.

Since Israel launched its war in Gaza, the Huthis have attacked international commercial vessels in the Red Sea and fired ballistic missiles at several U.S. warships.

In response, the United States and its allies have launched air strikes against the Huthis' military infrastructure. Washington has also re-designated the Huthis as a terrorist organization.


This content originally appeared on News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty and was authored by News - Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty.

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Sidelined as premier, sidelined in death https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/li-keqiang-funeral-11022023035037.html https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/li-keqiang-funeral-11022023035037.html#respond Thu, 02 Nov 2023 07:54:00 +0000 https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/li-keqiang-funeral-11022023035037.html Updated Nov 02, 2023, 05:05 a.m. ET.

Flags flew at half-mast in China on Thursday amid the funeral for former premier Li Keqiang in a low-key ceremony strictly contained to prevent any outpouring of grief that might trigger protests over President Xi Jinping’s management of the economy.

Li died unexpectedly of a heart attack on Friday morning at the age of 68.

He was cremated at the Babaoshan Revolutionary Cemetery in Beijing. 

Xi, his wife Peng Liyuan and others bowed three times in front of Li’s remains to pay their respects, state news agency Xinhua reported. Former president Hu Jintao sent a wreath to express his condolences.

George Magnus, research associate at the China Centre, Oxford University and the School of African and Oriental Studies in London, said that Li had the potential to be a lightning rod for public frustration because “many Chinese … [regarded] him in death as a symbol of a past of which they were deprived.

“Even though Beijing will manage Li’s funeral to ensure that it passes swiftly and without public significance, there might be many Chinese …[who regard him as] a signpost to a different future,” said Magnus.

“No one can know how he would have managed the last decade differently from Xi, but his reputation and credibility in death may resonate nevertheless for people at a time of growing economic and social stress.” 

Li may not have been a notable “reformer” premier – the second in charge of China after President Xi Jinping and a protégé of former leader Hu Jintao – but he was a Peking University PhD and had a more “global” outlook.

He was focused more on China’s economy and foreign affairs than Marxist politics, of the kind Xi is enamored of.

Contender

Li was once considered a rival to Xi as top party leader in China, but he missed out on the job in a moment that may well have changed history.

State broadcaster CCTV reported that Li was “an excellent CPC [Communist Party of China] member, a time-tested and loyal communist soldier and an outstanding proletarian revolutionist, statesman and leader of the Party and the state.”

AP23306070455123.jpg
People use their smartphones to film a vehicle with flowers which is believed to be carrying the body of former Premier Li Keqiang as the convoy heads to the Babaoshan Revolutionary Cemetery in Beijing Thursday, Nov. 2, 2023. Credit: AP Photo

The funeral protocol followed that established by former premier Li Peng’s death in 2019 – attendance by all top leaders, including Xi before the cremation but no public memorial service in the Chinese capital, Beijing.

The lack of a public memorial is thought to be due to the fear that public memorials for state premiers can transition into protests against the established leadership, as was the case when Hu Yaobang passed away, eventually leading to the Tiananmen protests of 1989.   

Memorials are are reserved for country heads. The last one, which was televised countrywide, was for Jiang Zemin in December last year.

Sympathy from the Chinese people for Li was likely “due to the widespread belief that Li, who came from a humble background unlike princeling Xi, cared about the many less well-off people of China,” said Dexter Roberts, director of China affairs at the Mansfield Center at the University of Montana and a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council.

“That sentiment became particularly strong after Li, speaking in a nationally-broadcast press conference over three years ago, commented that China had 600 million people who survived on only 1,000 yuan (US$140) a month, “not even enough to rent a room in a medium Chinese city.”

The other issue, wrote Roberts, who is author of the widely read Substack, Trade Wars, was Li’s apparent commitment to the economy, in opposition to Xi’s ‘ideology over everything else’ approach.

Tributes to Li “appear to be a way to indirectly express anger at Xi’s highly politicized rule and his policies, which many view as signaling an end to decades of Deng Xiaoping’s Reform and Opening, later in large part carried on by presidents Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, and premiers Zhu Rongji and Wen Jiabao,” noted Roberts.

AP23306322946013.jpg
In this photo released by Xinhua News Agency, a family member of former premier Li Keqiang, left, is greeted by Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Babaoshan Revolutionary Cemetery in Beijing, Thursday, Nov. 2, 2023. Credit: Xie Huanchi/Xinhua via AP

Analysts are sure that Li and Xi had opposing agendas – different views on how China should stride onto the global stage, and it’s highly likely that Xi will not deeply regret the passing of the former premier who might have taken his job if Hu Jintao, the former leader of China had his way.

“Xi must show respect and affection for Li, which means he must pretend,” Perry Link, noted Chinese scholar, told Radio Free Asia. “And he has to do it with a grief-stricken look on his face, which means he must pretend not to be pretending.” 

“Tough,” added Link.

Amid a glut of disappearances of top leaders and apparent upper-echelon confusion in Beijing the question might be just how much tough stuff can Xi handle.

“I don’t know what the tipping point might one day be for Xi,” said Oxford’s Magnus. “Maybe we are in it or close, maybe it’s still years away.

“But time I’d say is not on his side,” Magnus added.

Edited by Mike Firn and Taejun Kang.

Updated to include detail from the Babaoshan Revolutionary Cemetery.


This content originally appeared on Radio Free Asia and was authored by By Chris Taylor for RFA.

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How Scientists From the “Global South” Are Sidelined at the IPCC https://www.radiofree.org/2022/11/17/how-scientists-from-the-global-south-are-sidelined-at-the-ipcc/ https://www.radiofree.org/2022/11/17/how-scientists-from-the-global-south-are-sidelined-at-the-ipcc/#respond Thu, 17 Nov 2022 18:45:19 +0000 https://theintercept.com/?p=414577

When Yamina Saheb started work with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2019, she was stunned at the treatment meted out to researchers from the “global south.” Diversity, equity, and inclusion seemed laughably alien concepts at the organization, which is tasked under the United Nations Environment Programme with charting a safe path for humanity through the climate crisis. Saheb, an energy economist specializing in the built environment, had a foot in the south as a dual Algerian-French citizen, and so she had long been aware of issues of inequity in the global research community. But the IPCC, which is structured to “bring together experts from all around the world” in working groups, exceeded her expectations of institutional prejudice.

The IPCC, in her view, was a place of glass ceilings for researchers from poorer countries. There were arbitrary bureaucratic obstacles to getting research read and accepted, technological deficits, onerous paywalls, and systematized bias in scientific journals. Climate sustainability thinkers from sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and southeast Asia were treated as second-class participants. “It looked like a continuation of colonialism,” Saheb told me.

Saheb’s colleagues, fellow IPCC authors, often remarked on this state of affairs — and yet it seemed to be accepted at the IPCC as the norm.

“It looked like a continuation of colonialism.”

“The constraints faced by global south researchers are appalling,” Julia Steinberger, professor of ecological economics at Lausanne University in Switzerland, told me. Steinberger described how researchers, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic, broke lockdown rules to travel to their offices in order to join meetings on Zoom, because their home internet and computing systems weren’t up to the task. Digital infrastructure even at institutional offices routinely failed. Saheb told me about a colleague from Tanzania, an ecological engineer at Ardhi University in Dar-es-Salaam, who “lagged behind the rest of us” simply due to computing issues.

According to Steinberger and Saheb, the IPCC made little to no investment for researchers to access advanced computers and Wi-Fi systems so they could join online meetings. “The result,” Steinberger said, “was that many simply were cut off from the process altogether. And this despite research institutions and the IPCC saving tons of money on travel and hotel expenses” during the pandemic. The IPCC’s media office did not respond to a request for comment on technological investments for researchers.

Even more distressing to Saheb was the continued inequality built into the IPCC’s vision of our collective future. According to the “integrated assessment models” that the IPCC uses to project the state of the international economy under a regime of warming in the 21st century, the global south stays poor and the north stays rich. The north is asked to make no sacrifices, no changes to lifestyle, and the south is supposed to accept massive land-use conversion for mitigation of carbon emissions — emissions for which the north is primarily responsible.

“It’s business as usual,” Saheb told me. “Just unbelievable. We are in 2022. And yet what we see at the IPCC is the continued domination of the north over the south.”

The domination starts with access to prime academic databases, such as Scopus and Web of Science, required for researchers to make proper citations in their climate studies in order to be granted consideration at the IPCC. Without citations to give the imprimatur of authority in a paper, the chance of getting published in a peer-reviewed journal plummets — and the IPCC only accepts peer-reviewed work.

For global south researchers, the cost of accessing Scopus and Web of Science databases — which together house 44,000 journals, 18 million conference papers, and tens of thousands of books — often stretches the meager budgets of their institutions. While institutional fees for Scopus, managed by the for-profit science publishing giant Elsevier, are proprietary and held in secret, a Texas A&M University Libraries report estimated them at $140,000 a year. Web of Science at A&M cost more than $212,000 a year. Other studies have found that bundled access to Elsevier journals can reach $1.2 million annually at top-tier research universities.

“The simple fact is that if you don’t have access to these databases,” said Saheb, “you are out.” For many of her colleagues, the paywalls were impossible to scale.

There is a self-perpetuating loop in which research from the global south rarely finds acceptance at journals such as Nature and Science, which are considered the gold standard publications for climate-related work. McGill University research scientist and writer Madhukar Pai reported in a 2020 Forbes Magazine piece that these “prestige journals” are “elite, exclusive and exclusionary,” with evidence showing that research from scientists in low- to middle-income countries is subject to consistent bias.

Pai interviewed more than 20 global south scientists in the wake of news that Nature was charging an exorbitant “article processing charge” of roughly $11,000 from researchers seeking open-access publication in its journal. (Yes, you read that right: Scientists working with Nature — and this applies to many other similarly prestigious journals — must pay to have their work published in a way that the public, and other scientists, can see it.) That sum, Pai found, was the equivalent of the net annual earnings of scientists in many African institutions, the salary of an assistant professor in a medical school in India, and more than the salary of a microbiologist in Bangladesh.

Activists from Africa demonstrate against gas extraction in African countries at the COP27 climate summit, on Nov. 15, 2022, in Scharm El Scheich, Egypt.

Activists demonstrate against gas extraction in African countries at the COP27 climate summit, on Nov. 15, 2022, in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt.

Photo: Christophe Gateau/picture alliance via Getty Images

The result of the system of scientific exclusion, financial and cultural, is that the literature of climate change is dominated by researchers from wealthier countries, who bring to the IPCC implicit prejudices as to the world’s collective climate future. This is revealed with hideous clarity in the social science of economic modeling practiced in the integrated assessment models, or IAMs, that play a pivotal role in the IPCC’s future scenarios for a decarbonized habitable planet.

“The barrier to entry for climate mitigation scenario modeling is extremely high,” said Jason Hickel, an economic anthropologist and senior fellow at the London School of Economics’ International Inequalities Institute, who has analyzed the assumptions of integrated assessment models. “The IPCC only includes scenarios that are modeled on IAMs, and producing IAMs requires large teams of researchers and massive resources,” Hickel told me in an email. “As a result, there are only a handful of institutions in the world that produce the IAMs and create most of the mitigation scenarios, and all of them are in rich countries.”

Control of IAMs modeling rests with eight institutions: the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany; the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Austria; the University of Maryland in the U.S.; the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency; the European Institute on Economics and the Environment in Italy; the Environmental Agency of Japan; the Paul Scherrer Institute in Switzerland; and the European Union’s Joint Research Centre. (The IPCC does not produce its own scenarios; it simply reviews the existing published literature.)

It should come as no surprise, said Hickel, that the mitigation scenarios produced by these institutions end up embedding what he calls “extremely problematic assumptions about the global economy.” The scenarios maintain high levels of energy use and continuous economic growth in rich countries to the year 2100, when the scenarios end. This northern profligacy is squared with the Paris climate agreement targets by constraining energy use in the global south. The scenarios also “rely on speculative technological change to an extent that is not supported by the empirical literature,” according to Hickel.

As Saheb put it, “The north will continue its overconsumption, magical technology that hasn’t yet been implemented will mitigate emissions — there is complete faith in technological innovation — and there is continuation of growth.”

“All IAMs are growthist,” she added. “If you question innovation and growthism, you are out of the IAMs community.”

Saheb’s expertise at the IPCC is how to manage housing in a climate-constrained future, and she found the projections in the typical growthist IAM for habitable living space to be grotesquely unfair. She takes floor area per capita as one measure of planned inequity: Today it’s around 60 square meters in North America and below 10 square meters across Africa. In some African countries it is below 5, which means, in Saheb’s assessment, “no proper housing at all.” But in the IPCC’s vision of brutal inequality perpetuated through the first half of the 21st century, the figure in North America reaches a generous 65 square meters per capita by 2050. And in Africa by 2050? It inches above 10 square meters. Why, asks Saheb, would any African accept such an outcome, when the resources and wealth are available to reach parity between global north and south?

But this hardly gets to the heart of the IPCC’s cruel vision of climate sustainability as projected in IAMs. Many of the modeling scenarios rely on a speculative emissions mitigation system known as BECCS, or “bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.” BECCS requires an extraordinary amount of fecund land to grow trees to burn for energy production in lieu of fossil fuels. In the IAMs projections favored at the IPCC, bioenergy is coupled with carbon capture technologies that barely function today and show no sign that they can be scaled up. The land needed for bioenergy in these scenarios is immense, more than three times the size of India by some estimations. Wolfgang Knorr, a research scientist at Lund University in Sweden, calculates that the land requirements for the IPCC’s Paris compliant scenarios with BECCS “amount to 25 to 80% of current cropland area.”

“If global south researchers had equal access to the means of producing mitigation scenarios, we would have different, more just and equitable options on the table.”

According to Hickel and others, the land will be appropriated mostly from the biomass-rich regions of the global south, in a process of epochal conversion from food production and existing ecosystems to massive monoculture plantations, with severe, possibly catastrophic, consequences for hungry populations. “And all to maintain the assumption of continued growth in the North,” Hickel told me. “I can say with high confidence that if Global South researchers had equal access to the means of producing mitigation scenarios, we would have different, more just and equitable options on the table.”

When I asked Saheb about the BECCS program, she replied, “This is the mode of colonialism. The mode is that we in the north are going to take the land of other people, in the south, to maintain our lifestyles.”

“The public doesn’t know anything about this mess at the IPCC,” she added. “The IAMs people will tell you the problem is known in the closed circles of the scientific community. But that’s nonsense, because what matters is if average people know. And if average people know, then maybe we can change this.”

Why, she asked, is there no integrated assessment model at the IPCC that projects a convergence of living standards and well-being between the global north and south? Why is there no vision for the north to give up some measure of its excess affluence and privilege to share resources, energy, and wealth with those who have for so long been exploited by the dynamics of the world economy? Why is there no concern that speculative techno-innovation as extreme as that envisioned in BECCs won’t work because it’s likely untenable and most certainly unjust? Why is there no questioning, not even a recognition, of the neocolonialist thinking that undergirds the debate about global climate mitigation?

I spoke with Saheb via Zoom from her home in Paris, and in the background her 2-year-old son fussed. It was late for her, nearly 10 p.m., and she had to get him to bed. “My son will be 30 years old in 2050,” she said. “If we continue like we are today, we will not be able to live on this planet by 2050. Probably sooner. He will ask, ‘Maman, why did you bring me into this world?’”

Saheb admitted she would not have a good answer for him.


This content originally appeared on The Intercept and was authored by Christopher Ketcham.

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